This week, Quebec’s separatist party announced it would not hold a provincial referendum on independence so long as U.S. President Donald Trump is in office.
A referendum “must not be hijacked by the upheavals of American politics, nor by the theatrics of an unpredictable president,” Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the Parti Québécois leader, said in a statement on the PQ’s website.
But other signs show the party is still serious about secession.
In June, the Parti Québécois published a 524-page book entitled Livre bleu that details what an independent Quebec could look like.
St-Pierre Plamondon has said the book marks an important milestone.
“Never in the history of Quebec has there been such a detailed, researched document on the question of Quebec as a country,” he said at a June 23 press conference, noting the document was drafted in consultation with dozens of experts.
Evelyne Brie, an assistant professor of political science at Université de Montréal, believes the book is a way for St-Pierre Plamondon to get ahead of questions that will inevitably be raised in this fall’s election.
“I feel like the strategy of [St-Pierre Plamondon] has always been to … provide a lot of information and do it a long time in advance to avoid … having this derail his campaign,” she said.
“I suspect that he wants to talk about other things as well.”
By releasing the blue book, the PQ will also mobilize keen sovereigntists, while potentially swaying those on the fence, Brie says.
“There’s [undecided] people who are going to be activated. And that’s going to be the main effect.”
‘The economic question’
Opponents of Quebec secession have long argued Quebec would be economically unviable as its own country.
“For a long time, the economic question of an independent Quebec has been the principal angle of attack from supporters of Canadian federalism,” the book says.
The book forcefully rebuts this claim, arguing an independent Quebec could be a wealthy nation, much like the Scandinavian countries and some smaller European economies.
“There is no link between the size of a population and the economic richness of a population,” the book says, noting Quebec’s population is similar to Denmark, Finland and Austria’s.
Denmark consistently ranks as one of the world’s wealthiest economies per capita, with a GDP per capita of about US$83,000.
Austria’s GDP per capita is nearly US$68,000, while Canada and Finland’s is around US$60,000.
Looking to Scandinavian countries for inspiration is nothing new, says Daniel Turp, a professor of international law at Université de Montréal. Turp notes that PQ founder and longtime leader René Lévesque frequently spoke about using Scandinavian economies and politics as a model for an independent Quebec.
“It’s normal that you come to be inspired by Scandinavian countries,” he said. “Quebecers are social democrats.”
Brie says it is not a question of whether Quebec would be viable as an independent state.
“I don’t think you’re going to find any credible economists, even federalists, who are going to say [an independent] Quebec is not viable economically,” she said.
Rather, the key questions are how much Quebec’s economy might suffer relative to Canada’s — and how painful the transition period might be.
She believes the blue book goes a long way in answering these questions. “It looks like the logical steps you would take in any context if you were to create a country,” she said.
Like most Scandinavian countries, an independent Quebec would favour having its own national currency and central bank, the book says.
This is a marked change from the PQ’s stance in the 1980 and 1995 separatism referendums, when the party pledged to keep the Canadian dollar.
The book argues that Quebec’s economy has been hurt by using the Canadian currency. It makes numerous references to “Dutch disease” — an economic phenomenon where a country’s natural resource sector raises the value of its currency to the detriment of other export-oriented sectors.
“It seems that the injection of funds from Albertan oil has masked the poor performance of the rest of Canada’s economy,” the book says. “In this context, it is evident that Quebec has been economically disadvantaged compared to other areas in Canada.”
The book says an independent Quebec would reduce government spending. It predicts $13 to $16 billion in overall savings from the reduced bureaucracy of running a smaller state, noting separation would be “the biggest exercise of reducing bureaucracy ever undertaken.”
The book says a mix of state-run and private corporations like Hydro-Québec and the National Bank of Canada would be the pillars of a diversified economy.
“Not only does Quebec have everything it needs economically to become a country, but it would benefit from making its own decisions.”
‘Non-alignment not possible’
An independent Quebec would need to be capable of protecting itself, the book says.
Currently, about 20 per cent of the Canadian Armed Forces — approximately 20,000 military personnel — are based in Quebec. All of these personnel would be invited to join an independent military modelled after Denmark and Sweden’s militaries, which include land, air and navy forces.
The book says Quebec would negotiate the takeover of military equipment and a number of military bases through a debt-sharing agreement with Canada.
The takeover of military equipment and bases would be consistent with the 1978 Vienna Convention on Succession of States in Respect of Treaties, says Turp.
The book is sharply critical of Canada’s longstanding failure to meet NATO’s military spending target of two per cent of GDP (a target Canada met for the first time in 2025-26). It says an independent Quebec would meet this target.
It also claims that “clearer objectives, a more coherent decision-making structure and politics adapted to its own strategic interests” would make Quebec more effective at national defence than Canada has historically been.
However, the book acknowledges that both Canada and an independent Quebec would not be able to protect its borders in the event of American aggression.
“Neither a Canadian army or a Quebecois army could prevent, or even curb, a military aggression from the U.S,” the book says.
Quebec would seek to join the military alliances NATO and NORAD, noting “non-alignment is not possible anymore in 2025.”
Precedent to be followed
The book acknowledges that becoming an independent state would be a massive undertaking. It sets out a two-year timeline for this process, during which it would create a provisionary constitution.
Turp says he was impressed by the book’s accurate assessment of international laws and precedents, which would be applied if separation were to occur.
“All in all, it’s a very comprehensive book,” said Turp, who is himself a longtime supporter of separation.
The book says an independent Quebec would switch from being a constitutional monarchy to a republic, similar in structure to France. France’s head of state is an elected president, and the country elects a prime minister to fulfill ceremonial duties.
The blue book does not yet contain a chapter on Indigenous relations but the PQ says the rights of First Nations and Inuit would be protected. The party has promised to release this chapter at the end of the summer, after consulting with First Nations and Inuit communities.
Brie says the PQ will be facing an uphill battle to get First Nations on board with an independence project.
“If you look at the results in [the] 1995 [referendum], it was something like 95-96 per cent of First Nations voted against independence,” she said.
“I think realistically, it’s not like this is going to be a population that is likely to favour the ‘yes’ side in the referendum now.”
The book also promises to protect another minority: anglophones. Currently, about 17 per cent of Quebec’s population are native English speakers — a group that has historically opposed secession.
“The independence of Quebec has never been and never will be a project of ‘revenge’ on the anglophone minority,” the book says, noting Quebec would protect English-language rights in public schools, hospitals and courts.
Quebec citizens would also continue to hold both Canadian and Quebec passports, with Quebec citizenship being acquired through birth, naturalization and ancestry.
An independent Quebec would seek strong relations with Canada, the book says, and would negotiate a treaty governing the free movement of goods and services.
It cites the 1962 Treaty of Helsinki signed by Scandinavian countries to promote economic cooperation as a model to follow. It says this would be preferred to a European Union system of governance.
“Quebec does not need to establish complex, shared institutions with the rest of Canada in order to achieve independence,” the book says.
While the book acknowledges that separation would not be easy, it notes peaceful secession is possible. It points to Czechoslovakia’s peaceful division into the independent countries of Czechia and Slovakia in 1993 as a roadmap for separation.
“There’s an interesting amount of recent precedent that will be followed by Quebec and Canada,” said Turp.
The book also argues that separation is essential.
Canada and Quebec’s societies are “fundamentally incompatible,” the book says, citing differences in language, culture and secularism.
“These two conceptions of a nation are not only different, but irreconcilable, placing Quebec in a perpetual tension that threatens its social cohesion.”
For Turp, the party’s clear and consistent stance on independence is refreshing.
“It’s being honest, it’s being consistent with what the PQ has consistently said.”
